Your Wealth Reserve: Why Wall Street predictions are all wrong

Why Wall Street predictions are all wrong

The predictions financial gurus make are not reliable for your decisions. They are for circus “barkers” to attract your hard-earned cash to fuel the financial industry. Wall Street pundits’ predictions — like where the market will be in a month or a decade — is “mostly baloney,” one TV observer writes. Most people are terrible at predicting the future. That’s true of professional stock pickers too. Economists are really bad also. They have a terrible track record of predicting the economy, and the Federal Reserve has a terrible record of predicting the U.S. GDP a year [ahead]. “Wall Street refuses to acknowledge that stock forecasts don’t work because there’s too much money in forecasting,” Bob Pisani says. Traders say managing losses is more important than managing gains. But if you are not a trader, you need to “know your limitations.” His advice: behavioral biases are extremely powerful mentally. It’s very hard to shake them even when you understand. Pisani was asked, “Why don’t you hire a financial advisor?” Why do you think they’re better? Why do you think they don’t have biases? His conclusion: use low-cost index fund. They don’t have personal biases and they minimize losses.

Automatic is best: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Robo-Advisor-Ultimate-Automatic-Management/dp/1537111957/

Saving a million dollars

21,951,000 people in the U.S. have a net worth of $1 million or more. Among all states, New Jersey has the most millionaire households. Only 3% of American millionaires received an inheritance of $1 million or above. Real estate makes up about 40% of a typical millionaire's net worth. 79% of millionaires did not receive any inheritance from their family or relatives. 8 out of 10 millionaires come from low-income families. So it is possible for you to grow a $ million. The secret is not inheriting or inventing a better mousetrap. The secret according to Warren Buffett: compounding interest. Over time, your $250 a month becomes $1,000,000 from compounding not high salary. Only 31% of respondents surveyed had a $100,000 annual income at some time in their careers. One-third never made $100,000 a year at any point in their career. Many millionaires have a significant percentage of their wealth tied up in their primary residence. $250 a month, $3000 a year (average tax refund) becomes $1 mil in 36 years: $51,000 in 10 years, $104,000 in 15; and $191,000 in 20; $334,000 in 25; and $569,000 in 30; $957,000 in 35 years. Compounding adds $50,000 in the last year on average. Total invested: $108,000; total capital gains $952,454. You became a millionaire by earning 9 times your savings. You do it by using the only consistent market-beating mutual fund.

Start early: https://www.amazon.com/Where-can-your-child-invest/dp/1492164240

Can you still grow a retirement fund if you start LATE?

Every saved and invested penny counts in retirement unless you love to work. Many retirees still love to work at a reduced pace as long as they do what they love. If you are a teacher for instance, you may have had enough during the pandemic and are ready to change jobs. Some love working with kids and kids/staff are back face to face. It is never too late to start. You have decided to get serious about saving for your future. You are at a great advantage. Right now the stock market is down 17% for the year. This means you can buy a stock or mutual fund that cost 25-40% less than it did last year. For instance, Microsoft is now $244 not $334 and the stock index is at $393 not $480. Historically, important stocks and the market index have recovered in about a year. Since you are buying during a sale, the value of your account will reach a greater value so you can retire with retirement income. Using your company 401k low-cost index account gives you the advantage of growth without immediate taxes. Your fund compounds faster since your full contributions grow. If you avoid taxes and advisor fees, you could accumulate over $300,000 in 20 years adding $400 a month. If your employer matches some of your $400, you can reach $400,000. Since you are not going to take the full amount out the first day of retirement, you may be able to reach $500,000 after you stop working.

https://www.amazon.com/Robbing-You-Blind-401k-fees/dp/1493588966

Stock pickers lost your money

A new study of actively managed mutual funds by S&P Dow Jones Indices asked that question and came up with a startling result. It found that not a single mutual fund — not one — managed to beat its benchmark in either the U.S. stock or bond markets regularly and convincingly over the last five years. Why? Costs. Experts who are not hyping their own businesses agree that “an investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.” Over time, no one Wall Street ‘professional’ is consistent enough NOT to cost you earnings. In fact, if you are paying them from your account, they may be taking up to 63% of what you would have had. In fact, Dalbar, the financial scorekeeper found that the index provides 11% return over 30 years while the investor using pickers’ funds earns only 3.79%. That is a huge loss to you. Especially in your 401k plan, mutual funds that pay rebates plus direct fees reduce your net gains drastically over time. Costs matter!

https://www.amazon.com/Best-Predictor-Investment-Success-Cost/dp/1502524082

Can you safely take 3% or 4% from your egg during inflation?

There are advisors who advocate different rates of spending from your nest egg. The two most popular are 3% or 4% a year. Using the historical market data and $1 million retirement fund, this analysis says “the 4% rule does work most of the time, but watch out for periods of high inflation. Don’t blindly take out 4% a year when inflation is high and your portfolio performance is low. The 4% rule may be something like 95% effective historically, but being flexible with your withdrawals will prevent complete disaster even if you are in the bad luck 5%.” I take this advice of “being flexible” as the best advice available from the analysis. Since I have a mostly qualified retirement fund, I must withdraw a mandated RMD of about 3.2% of last year’s lesser total accumulation. If I need more income, I take out some of my losing cash account stocks. Let winners run.

https://www.amazon.com/What-your-RMD-much-spend/dp/1718946716

Wealthy learn new ways to avoid taxes in MA

MA has passed a new tax on millionaires. Millionaires are paying big fees to their accountants and advisors to escape the tax before they get the bill. They tell them 1 that if your income is over $1 million, you could try to receive some before the end of 2022 instead of in 2023 when the tax goes into effect. 2 spread income over time so you don’t exceed $1 million. 3 use 1031 exchange to postpone tax on a rental property gains. 4 move out of jurisdiction. Many states are run by millionaires and billionaires and thus are unlikely to ever tax millionaires. If your $ millionaire status is because you may receive a one-time bump, your accountant may already have ways to keep the income out of your 1040. Many business people use their structure to show income in different ways. This may help them avoid taxes like our former president did.

https://www.amazon.com/Americas-Socialism-Rich-little-people/dp/1535218584

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