Friday, November 17, 2023

Is the 4% retirement income withdrawal rate right for you?

 

Are commodity assets right for you?

Sure, if you have intimate knowledge of that one in particular. You may be better off owning the companies that deal in the commodity than the actual product. Commodities include futures contracts to invest in light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, Brent crude, gold, silver, aluminum, zinc, copper, corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar. Some advisors use commodities tactically in client portfolios. Some have used gold and broad commodity ETFs as inflationary hedges. Some reduce a client’s exposure to hard assets due to deflationary pressures. If our economy has a mild recession, then most commodity baskets won’t perform well in an environment like that. Most investors or their advisors are not able or willing to research and plan the use of commodities in a changing environment. For instance, two wars in oil-producing regions as well as global, especially domestic, increasing energy needs, may provide compelling reasons for a continuing hold of energy commodity ETFs. However only a person open to the risks of commodities would feel comfortable in that position. Most advisors recognize commodities’ poor performance: they “tend to be expensive, and tax-inefficient.” Instead it may wise to overweight a low-cost energy fund.

https://www.amazon.com/Vanguards-Top-Ten-mutual-funds/dp/150073909X

 

 

Is the 4% retirement income withdrawal rate right for you?

New retirees hoping to use a “safe” fixed real withdrawal strategy for managing their retirement income can plan to withdraw 4% of their portfolio’s value in the first year of retirement, according to Morningstar’s newly published report, “The State of Retirement Income: 2023.” Subsequent withdrawal rates include an adjustment for inflation. However not everyone’s situation matches the assumptions in this respected report. For instance, this strategy assumes your portfolio has “strong fixed income returns.” It also assumes a fairly level spending rate. It also may assume no large emergency situation like large medical expenses. The analysis assumes a balanced portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds, and the 90% “success rate” here is defined as a 90% likelihood of not running out of funds over the 30-year period. Contrast this strategy with Dave Ramsey’s 8% per year. His math is simple. “If you’re making 12 [percent] in good mutual funds and the S&P is averaging 11.8, and if inflation for the last 80 years is 4%, if you make 12 and you need to leave 4% in there for average inflation raises, that leaves you eight. So, I’m perfectly comfortable drawing eight.” We might pick a rate somewhere between 4% and 8% just to be on the safe side.

https://www.amazon.com/4-percent-Retirement-Rule-Wrong-Lifestyle/dp/1492218960

 

How to overcome the fear of future poverty

Many of us grew up having to save every dime and so spent our lives being driven by a fear of poverty. There is a way to overcome this fear as we get into our most successful years of earning power. My spouse and I had grown up in these circumstances. Our families were not in money-making professions—teachers and retail service workers. Thus every cent counted. Yet our families made sure we went to college. We made the most of our state-school educations. We started saving every payday: first for a car, a house and emergencies. Later we saved for retirement early with our first full-time employers. We first used high-yield savings vehicles; then used stocks and stock mutual funds. We got comfortable with market ups and downs since we earned more than fixed returns provided. We learned to just “stay the course” as Vanguard’s John Bogle counseled. Staying in the market even in recessions and regressions has left us with very comfortable positions. We no longer fear ending up in poverty. Plus we paid a financial planner to scope out the spending and ending balances of every year in retirement. After 5 years of living in retirement with only retirement savings as income we feel comfortable with the planner’s ending balances. We know we can keep paying our high property taxes and living expenses. We have planned for our family legacy and long-term care needs.

Planning for the future ended our fear of poverty: https://www.amazon.com/Your-Plan-Live-Age-100/dp/1548180793

 

Financial industry has split in half: one half for high-net worth clients and one for us. LPL Financial announced the launch of LPL Private Wealth Management, an affiliation program for advisors catering to high-net-worth clients. Being highly visible to high-net-worth individuals may be all an advisor needs to do to secure them as a client, but they may switch advisors as easily. Wealthy clients could find a better fit with proper due diligence of the prospect. LPL provides standard back office supports to the advisor in the upscale program which provides special tools: advanced estate and philanthropy planning, income tax strategy, trustee services, robust alternative investment platform, banking and lending solutions and complex life insurance planning. The average advisor client would have no use for these services so LPL and other platform providers have segregated their offerings. Actual separation of financial services will continue until the industry officially becomes split in two—one for the wealthy and one for us.

A Robo-Advisor may better serve your needs: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Robo-Advisor-Ultimate-Automatic-Management/dp/1537111957/

 

Retirement portfolios’ key success factors

Decide on goals: income-focused to match spending or total-return to consider time frame, risk tolerance and flexibility. There are costs and benefits to both approaches. Adjustments in assets are necessary to create a specific income on an on-going basis. On the other hand, a total-return goal requires discipline to hold low-cost diversification assets. The focus is long-term flexibility in an overall portfolio. However, many of us fear the nominal decline of the account so cut spending for retirement needs. This change in goal often results in an income-focused approach. This puts the portfolio at risk since yields have been low and changes asset holdings to riskier forms may hurt over time. The total-return focus on asset use provides flexibility in spending and growth. Long-term tax efficiency is also maintained for the total-return investor. Dividend-paying stocks may provide a useful support in many portfolios. However, in changing the risk profile of the whole, investors may have to make other asset adjustments. It may be more advantageous to sell a stock rather than take dividends when more income is needed.

Avoid the Annuity trap: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Annuity-Strategy-Income-Growth/dp/1497532019

 

 

********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?

 

 

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracyWe rejected an "American fascist" once

 

 

The Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030

 

Parallels of this era in the past may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally

 

 

Jan 21 2010 Corpor­a­tions’ election-spending unlim­ited

Billionaires paid $881 million for votes in 2022 midterm elections

 

Nov 2020 Wealthy discredit election process

 

Nov 21 2020 Trump’s Plans for a Coup: criminal

 

Nov 21 2020: Trump plan: US Marshals seize voting machines

 

Jan 6 2021 Direct govt overthrow failed: guns & bombs were ready

 

Trump engaged in a "criminal conspiracy" to stop Biden

 

I don’t f—ing care that they have weapons

 

Trump was “detached from reality”

 

Trump used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless

 

Trump still terrorizing election woman

 

Parscale: “a sitting president asking for civil war.”

 

Trump: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me” 

 

GOP fascism: “RINO hunt armed; no bagging limitJ6 comm threat

 

January 6, 2021A date which will live in infamy

 

Trump’s Supremes END personal rights & state laws except for weapons WMDs

 

Fascism: GOP to stop women leaving state for abortion

 

It’s not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas

 

Trump: President Biden is 'enemy of the state'

 

Christian Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces GOP

 

Nov 8 2022 Trump’s “national revolution” failed

 

Nov 15 2022 Trump announces for 2024 to avoid lawsuits

 

Dec 3 2022 Trump: cancel Constitution rules so ‘I win

 

Mar 11 2023 Pence straddles his place in history

 

Mar 31 2023 Trump indicted misusing election money

 

Apr 7 2023 One GOP guy decided which drugs we can use

 

Apr 9 Illustrated Anne Frank book removed by Florida school

 

Apr 21 Trump: “I am your justice

 

May 9 Trump guilty of sexual abuse

 

Jun 8 Trump indicted by the United States of America

Violation of the Espionage Act

Conspiracy to obstruct justice

Making false statements 

 

Aug 1 2023 Trump indicted by the United States of America

Conspiracy to defraud the United States

Conspiracy to obstruct Congressional proceeding

Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding

Conspiracy against right to vote

 

 

Attempted coup d'état by any other name

 

350+ people have been sentenced to jail or prison.

 

 

Trump and His Gang Get the Mob Treatment

 

Aug 4  “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!”

 

Mobster #1 Enrique Tarrio gets 22 years 

Mobster Stewart Rhodes sentenced to 18 years

Mobster Ethan Nordean gets 18 years

Mobster Dominic Pezzola sentenced to 10 years

 

 

 

Aug 14 2023 Trump & 18 indicted by the State of Georgia

 

VIOLATION OF THE GEORGIA RICO (RACKETEER INFLUENCED AND CORRUPT ORGANIZATIONS) ACT SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT INIPERSONATIN PUBLIC OFFICER FIRST DEGREE

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE DOCUMENTS

FORGERY IN THE FIRST DEGREE

CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

FILING FALSE DOCUMENTS

SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

SOLICITATION OF VIOLATION OF OATH BY PUBLIC OFFICER

FALSE STATEMENTS AND WRITINGS

 

 

Aug 24 2023 The Don, Racketeer: GA jailhouse real ‘mug’ shot

 

Oct 2 2023  Kelly, Trump’s staff, confirms Trump called our veterans/wounded soldiers “suckers

 

Wannabe Dictatorto run House of  our? “Representatives

 

 

 

Jan 2025 Dictator pardons himself: his Supremes agree

 

 

How Govt wastes our money:

Workers Are Getting Paid to Do Nothing at Los Alamos National Laboratory

IRS Increases Tax Breaks for Gifts, Estates and Capital Gains for wealthy

Govt admits ‘Aliens,’ or a foreign power in our backyard: $ billions for ‘intelligence’?

 

Clean vehicle credits can help car buyers pay less at the dealership

 

 

SCAMS/SPINS:

Trump plans to weaponize FBI, DOJ against his enemies: GOP quit/hide rather than fight

GOP “runs out” of ballots for MS Black voters in some polling places: GOP won election

GOP pushes 2 step funding stopgap bill: dissidents may still shut down the govt on 17th.

 

Black Children Were Jailed in TN for a Crime That Doesn’t Exist:

 

GOP pledged to cut Social Security benefits and raise the retirement age

GOP Santos broke Fed laws but won’t be punished by GOP: Santos just walks away

It’s OK: maligning court staff at trial approved by appellate judge, but not OK for us

 

Monitor your money accounts every month: check these specific ways

Booking.com scam asks for payment BEFORE trip: scammers keep money

Haywood USA failed to do due diligence for approximately 134 sales: fine

 

Enova caught: illegal conduct, deception, canceling loan without notice: fine no jail

Webull didn’t have compliance staff or supervisory procedures for years: fine no jail

Smartasset: find your “perfect” financial advisor using 21 simple questions: not possible

 

UnitedHealth used guidelines set by algorithm to cut patients off from rehabilitative care

Health insurers are flouting laws created to guarantee access to critical medical care

We are walking less: health declines for most

 

One Army bullet maker supplies most of the ammo that kills us everyday

Supremes create fantasy of unenforceable ‘code of conduct’ for Dem’s demand

7 more women sue TX over abortion laws

 

Deepfakes so good we may not be able to know even from trusted sources

Qualify for free internet: https://maxsipconnects.com/smo-apply

Amazon to sell cars—first Hyundai. Pick it up at dealer or delivered to home.

 

Jobs

Be a product reviewer: stuff for free and at-home jobs

UAW workers at GM's Flint plant narrowly vote against new labor deal

20 states still pay a minimum wage of $7.25 per hour: living wage?—live in car!

 

jobs.interestingengineering.com/

Caregivers are supported in many states: Fed legislation proposed

 

 

Who owns your account now?

Military service retail discounts: some useful bargains

Mortgage delinquencies rose 15% year-over-year: sixth consecutive quarter of increases

Genworth Moves Ahead With Long-Term Care Reboot

When you fly, keep look out for a bag of tools floating down from space: Aliens or us?

 

As car insurance premiums go up, drivers switch to “usage-based” cover to save

Stay invested: market up 17% YTD on great economic outlook: low inflation

Women say they feel like they don’t make enough money to save for retirement

 

Miracles:

Pope fires TX bishop who called him a “diabolically disoriented clown.”

According to Trump’s sister, Judge Barry, he "has no principles" and is "cruel."

Editing a gene inside the liver can significantly reduce levels of “bad cholesterol

Sickle cell patients could soon become the first gene-editing treatment recipients

 

Women now live almost six years longer than men: 79.3 years vs 73.5 among men

Disasters—storms etc are getting more frequent and costly

 

 

@

 

Our Universe is Mind-Blowing

Light is both a particle and a wave depending on how we look at the light.

I don’t think that there is any such thing as a position or a velocity of a particle.

Everything (galaxies to stones) in universe made of subatomic energy ‘vibrations’

A subatomic ‘particle’ is the smallest possible vibration (quantum) of a quantum field.

A ‘particle’ is an event; not an objective thing. This event is set of complex relationships.

 

Mass–energy equivalence: E=mc^2.  At the smallest level; Everything is moving

Energy into matter: scientists converted light energy directly into matter in one step

In place of atomic lattice, light waves used to create an optical lattice with same geometry

Physics Nobel Prize: “entanglement” 2 particles share info instantly at a distance

Quantum mechanics violates local realism: two objects behave as single system at distance

 

“It may be that gravity and quantum mechanics are exactly the same thing,” Leonard Susskind

Gravity might induce the collapse of quantum vibrations into 1 quantum state—our world

Strange state of physics that allows energy to flow frictionlessly through a material

Bending light from extreme gravity reveals largest black hole so far

Curved SpaceTime: heavy masses and simultaneously quantum effects become visible

There is no TIME at this level because of force fields come and go in all directions. 

Universe expanding: events may not come together like they did before: created our time.

Our planetary system: rarest system: only 1% of all systems with same number of planets

 

Stars fueled by the self-annihilation of dark matter might have been spotted for the first time by JWST

Inside protons, neutrons, it is the fields of the virtual particles that creates its mass.

Gold made from neutron stars: collisions produce more neutrons:79 protons,118 neutrons

The proton is so complicated science still finds new energy entities/forces every year.

 

“Empty space is a boiling, bubbling brew of virtual particles that pop in and out of existence in a time scale so short that you can’t even measure them.” Space expanding.

New method to study systems with long-range interactions: previously puzzling experts

The electricity we use comes from the field around the wire not from electron itself.

 

Natural ‘missing law’ explain how universe evolved: functions increase in complexity over time

Scientists build 'baby' wormhole as sci-fi moves closer to fact: inside quantum computer

starts-with-a-bang/universe-expansion-not-accelerating/

Physicists knew black holes eventually disappear particle by particle. Now they think everything else does, too.

Astronomers discover raw materials for life are present all across the Universe: methyl cation

 

 

 

@

We can apply for Medicare online: https://blog.ssa.gov/apply-for-medicare-online

We can apply for Social Security online: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/

We can apply for health care online: https://www.healthcare.gov/

 

IAN

973.746.2014

http://www.theinsidersguides.com/ 

Alerts available at http://dankeppel.blogspot.com/ No AI used in these comments

 

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