Friday, January 24, 2020

How much income in retirement?


How much income can we expect in retirement?
The older folks I talk to have been saving all their lives. Their parents learned from practical experience (during hard times and before Social Security benefits started flowing) that if they didn’t save themselves or work at a place that gave pensions, they would have a hard time later. They learned to make sure part of their incomes was saved for later. Today, many have all types of income including SS benefits which they earned. Some men in Congress think our SS benefits are ‘entitlements’ that can be cut to pay the rich. They encourage the free subsidies some of their constituents receive for NOT growing crops or NOT finding oil or NOT having a bank reserve. Of course for some folks, it has always been hard to save for later—they never had a high paying job or their wages have stayed the same since the 1960s. So 40% of us over age 60 live on (try to live on) SS benefits alone. I don’t think all those folks threw their wages away and deliberately did not save. Their wages just did not reflect their increased productivity. Their share went to senior management. Their job didn’t offer matching 401k contributions. Their savings went to an emergency. Most of the folks I now help as an AARP Tax-Aide have a pension and SS benefits only. One in 10 has personal investments they cash in periodically. Most average less than $40,000 total income—a combination from both spouses. Most learn to cope with less. Trump now says Medicare and SS benefits may be cut since his tax cuts have NOT reduced the deficit as promised.

Complete your tax filing for FREE
If you meet certain criteria and have your documents already, federal and state can cost you nothing at https://apps.irs.gov/app/freeFile/. The software helps you avoid common mistakes before you file. Even if you make a tiny mistake, the IRS usually catches it without penalty. I have used most of these programs for years even though my income is above the limits. Most charge nothing for the federal and state. Some charge only $12.95 for the state. In 2019, NJ has kept the ObamaCare mandate tax if you don’t have health care cover so that state return may get complicated. Once you file your first year, your previous years’ data is there and pre-fills your forms: Saves a lot of time and money. Try it before you spend $200-300 at a for-profit preparer. No refund? File to keep your ID from scammers.

Which is better: ETF or Mutual Fund?
ETFs are index funds you can buy and sell every minute. Some brokers charge commissions. Are you surprised to learn the largest ETFs are offered by Vanguard? Since most ETFs and Funds charge almost nothing and use the same index of stocks/bonds, why invest in one or the other. First you don’t need a brokerage account to own a Fund. Second, you may be able to reduce your taxable income with one over the other. Third, it is much easier to buy and sell an ETF than a Fund. Fourth, one or the other may provide an index of securities you favor. There are now at least 5,000 ETFs trading globally, with more than 1,750 based in the U.S. There were 9,599 mutual funds in 2018. However, here are only 3,671 domestic stocks today, down from 7,322 in 1996. There are 108,790 listed companies around the world. Remember, Warren Buffett won his bet with hedge fund options by holding just one low-cost Fund for 10 years.

Why does Warren Buffett credit COMPOUNDING for his wealth?
Compound interest: making money on your previous earnings. Warren Buffett wrote:
"My wealth has come from a combination of living in America, some lucky genes, and compound interest." Compounding is the Miracle of Finance. Unfortunately, the financial services industry does not allow schools to teach compounding of high earnings from index funds as Buffett advises. He proved Bogle’s idea: costs matter and are the most important factor in investing success. He bet the Vanguard 500 Index would beat the 5 hedge funds run by a Wall Street ‘professional.’ Indeed if you look at the past, most equity investors earn much less than a low-cost index fund: 3.79% vs 11.06%. The only requirement is that you must give up the vain search for the top stock or fund and just wait. We all want to be rich quickly so we don’t know how to wait. Fast trading is the myth of Wall Street since trading is the only way they make money. Make money the old fashioned way—Wait—and let the Miracle of Compounding work for you.

Are ‘thematic’ funds right for you?
These mutual funds “hunt for tomorrow’s winners based on today’s emerging trends.” Using tea leaves and propaganda from the companies they buy, these well-paid gurus of Wall Street buy into stocks with 1000 to 1 chance of being the next Amazon, Apple or Facebook. Assets under management doubled in three years to reach $175.2 billion at the end of December. When interest rates are declining, investors tend to make more dangerous bets. Often you lose with larger wagers. People who have made this bet usually forget that the huge winners like Amazon have taken years to win support: 1997 price $1.73; 2020 price $1,884. Few gave Jeff $1.73 for his bookstore stock. 11% a year is easier money.

**********ACCOUNTABILITY**************

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracy—do we really want ‘low-IQMobster?

Trump admits there is a growing totalitarian impulse …
Trump kills foreign leader because he was “saying bad things
His power comes from fear that they may be next

Trump cancels Obama’s vegetables and fruits in public school lunches: Perdue’s menu
Social Security benefits will be saved or lost in the next election: 2100 Act v TRUST Act

Trump kills Obama water rules: dump whatever you like into rivers and streams.
Trump to cut California health funding: Going for the Evangelical vote


SCAMS/SPINS:
MO parents can have librarian jailed allowing certain books in ‘public’ library: Rev lawmaker.
How to beat the high cost of textbooks: 3 firms make 80% so monopoly pricing capitalism.

John Stumpf WellsFargo caught pumping sale bogus accounts for profit: first Fed charge banker

John Kapoor Insys Therapeutics caught drug dealer gets 5 years jail—first corp dealer in jail! 
One pill replaces workout benefits: Sestrin appears to mimic the effects of exercise … on mice!
Telephone replaces human communication: loneliness from screen time; few make real contact.


Nathan Duane Oeming Commonwealth Financial caught soliciting a minor

Honda recalls 2.7 million 1996 through 2003 for airbag inflator

Gray hair: we use up the limited supply of hair dye in our cellular make-up if we get too scared.

Jobs

Who owns your account now?

Miracle:

IAN
41 Watchung Plaza, B242
MontclairNJ   07042
973.746.2014
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