Friday, April 14, 2023

Is now a good time to “Buy on the dip”?

 

Financial ‘advisors’ you should NOT hire

Complaints to regulators show that many working people pay the wrong people for advice. Poor advisors can work for a prestigeous Wall Street firm or a rogue firm. That is why you must ask perspective candidates the right questions. First you examine your new advisor’s work history at https://brokercheck.finra.org/: how many customer complaints, how many firms. For example: https://brokercheck.finra.org/individual/summary/5055667. Your choice should hold a CFP certificate (fiduciary) as well as exhibit similar work experience as this Investment Advisor: https://brokercheck.finra.org/individual/summary/1481083.

Never pick your first candidate. Never pick someone with the wrong specialty, like a popular stock picker. Never pick someone with a strategy you don’t understand. Never pick a person who can’t explain how they and their employer get paid. I found out that Vanguard the large mutual fund seller provides its own financial advisors who don’t sell products and their fee is reasonable. I use their unbiased advice often.

https://www.amazon.com/Lies-Financial-Advisors-Told-alternatives/dp/1478281545/

 

Graduation gift that lasts a lifetime

Give your teen the easy way to be secure: a $ million tax-FREE fund. Make sure you teach your kids how to create wealth the easy way. My parents were not investors. At my first job, I had no clue which investment option to use for my 401k contribution and company match. The HR person told me to put it into the “safe” stable value fund. That was the worst choice at my age I learned later when I got my securities licenses. If I had followed their advice I would have ended up with about $150,000 instead of a Wealth Reserve of $877,233 about 33 years later. I have used this 'Wealth Reserve' as I call it to have funds to buy low-cost insurance, to buy two homes and 5 cars with higher down payments or cash, and now to receive $2,500 a month in retirement supplement. Now your child can build an account that provides tax-FREE education and retirement income too. Market provides 11% a year over time: double your money every 7-8 years.

Time is on their side: https://www.amazon.com/Give-your-child-leg-up-manage/dp/1096505355

 

Are money market accounts right for you?

Banking turmoil and high yields pushed many savers into these funds. However there are some risks. Many bank CD holders see rates of 4.49% (Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX) and grab them. However, some ‘grabers’ are not aware of the quick outflows due to the kind of assets in Prime MM funds. These funds hold commercial paper (short-term loans to firms) which can fall in value quickly. There are three main kinds of funds: government, prime and Treasury: low-risk assets (cash); all kinds of assets (commercial paper); and Treasury bills and cash (gov guaranteed) respectively. Treasury funds can spike rates because of the Congress fights over the debt ceiling. There’s no guarantee you won’t lose money. Most funds have no FDIC nor floor in case they drop in share value. Given any future financial ‘hiccups’ your money may be at risk. However your money is also at risk with a 0.25% 48-month bank CD. Inflation kills account value. Plus these MM funds actually take your money as ‘costs’: from 0.09% at Vanguard to 0.34% at Schwab and 0.42% at Fidelity. Every financial product has risks and rewards—that’s why they call it ‘investing.’ Readers’ balanced portfolios earn about 7.5% a year on average.

The answer is a balanced portfolio: https://www.amazon.com/MasterClass-Buffetts-SIMPLE-Strategy/dp/1983485268

 

What is a balanced portfolio?

My readers have chosen many solutions to the long-term investing question. Since they recognize that they are not going to get rich quick, they follow the most successful UN-biased analysts we had and have today. For many, Buffett, Bogle and Malkiel were the starting point in their search. No single strategy for stock-picking investing has tested best in recent history. Burton Malkiel looked at investing strategies and concluded that because of costs and purchase timing, an index of large stocks would produce better results over time. The creation of the first retail stock index fund by John Bogle in 1975 allowed ordinary investors to buy and hold the 500 large US stocks. Over time this one fund has provided better returns than most hedge funds and managed retail funds. Thus, in a recent contest between master investor Warren Buffett and 5 top hedge funds over a 10 year period proved the point. Buffett: I argued that active investment management by professionals - in aggregate - would over a period of years underperform the returns achieved by rank amateurs who simply sat still. Hedge fund investments only earned $220,000 [through 2016] in the same period that Buffett's low-fee investment gained $854,000. For most stock-picking funds, the earnings average just 3.79% vs a low-cost (0.04%) S&P 500 index which provided 10-11%. Most of my readers are using various weights on most of the top 10 Vanguard funds including bonds, small stocks and sector funds.

Balance wins in all times: https://www.amazon.com/Vanguards-Top-Ten-mutual-funds/dp/150073909X

 

Is now a good time to “Buy on the dip”?

Some analysts are taking advantage of buying stocks they like; especially now when stocks are “on sale.” Some stocks that were or are ripe for this strategy: Tesla and Schwab. However, these folks are trying to “time the market.” Since my readers and I follow Buffett and the conclusions from thousands of studies on this strategy, we pass. Proof: a current study shows that passive funds beat “professionally” managed funds even when high-cost managers are supposed to beat index funds during times of increased volatility. Buffett: “We continue to make more money when snoring than when active." Buffett’s advice: “Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees.... Paradoxically, when ‘dumb’ money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb.” Some analysts see a recession coming so even ‘buying on the dip’ price may cause you to lose money when the price falls even further. Buffett: “more U.S. banks are likely to fail.” Be patient. No one can predict the future! “Know your limitations.”

Go back to sleep: https://www.amazon.com/Snoring-Best-Way-Create-Wealth/dp/1466408928

 

Is complex investing strategies right for you?

When it comes to investing, keep it simple for best results. Mutual funds were originally meant to make life simple. At a time when it was difficult or impossible for individual investors to assemble a diversified portfolio without paying steep trading commissions, funds such as MFS Massachusetts Investors Trust MITTX, Vanguard Wellington VWELX, and Pioneer Fund PIODX started a brand-new profitable industry. Now at over 10,000 funds and ETFs, complexity, as a marketing tool has made products more expensive but less rewarding for us. Many of the funds that investors encounter should only play a small role in their portfolios—if any role at all. Core holdings, meanwhile, make up less than one fourth of the fund coverage. Complex products hide the actual investor returns leading to a 1.7% GAP between actual and reported total returns. It is hard for the sellers to understand the complexity, let alone the buyer. Only one number is important: how much did you earn for the amount of investment. The rest is BS hype. You can have a complete portfolio with just two funds for life: the low-cost 60-40 strategy: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Robo-Advisor-Ultimate-Automatic-Management/dp/1537111957

 

How to make a cash offer to win your choice home deal

The industry says a “cash offer” is an “all-cash” bid, meaning a homebuyer wants to purchase the property without a mortgage loan or other financing. However, few people have $514,568 as cash in the bank. Some are investors and they are principal reason for higher prices for all of us. Some buyers have downsized and just got paid for their house. No one pays cash in the normal meaning (green backs) as the phrase implies. You can do a “cash offer”: obtain full mortgage approval in advance. You have to go to the bank and obtain a completed loan for a certain amount. For our first house in1990, we brought our 20% required down payment with our financial application complete. We knew what we could afford with maintenance and closing costs and insurance so the bank we chose for low rate approved the amount within 2 weeks. Once the bank committed, we went shopping for a home we could afford. They sent the money to our closing lawyer on the day of closing along with title search and other closing docs. It takes preparation, patience, and sound financial base. You will feel satisfied when you are done.

We did “all cash” offer to win the home bidding but with tellers’ checks not ‘cash’.

Get a mortgage commitment before you waste time shopping for a home.

 

 

New hook: Active Personalization Is the New Active Investing’

Brokers and advisors have to overcome the continuous underperformance to index funds returns. They must change the name for the next “sales hook.” the concept of active personalization, which blends traditional approaches with more modern ones, will become more important to the younger investors. “Active personalization is the new active investing.” In English that means a lot of costly trading. Eventually the younger person will realize they are paying for movement which drives industry profits. Profits come from their money. Pay more earn less will finally be seen if the younger investor starts asking questions and do their own analysis. The huge growth in ETFs of every slice of the market means that many will be tricked in buying the wrong slice at a specific time. Advisors will have over 1 million options within the next five years. All of this leads into ‘direct indexing’: making your own index at higher costs. This trick was the last industry “hook” but picking stocks to index fails because advisors don’t know what the future Apple looks like today.

Best proof of your success is costs: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Predictor-Investment-Success-Cost/dp/1502524082

 

 

?**********ACCOUNTABILITY**************?

 

 

Like 1776, this period is a test of democracyWe rejected an "American fascist" once

 

 

The Path to Dictatorship: 2010-2030

 

Parallels of this era in the past may hint at our future: democracy breaks apart legally

 

 

Jan 21 2010 Corpor­a­tions’ election-spending unlim­ited

Billionaires paid $881 million for votes in 2022 midterm elections

 

Nov 2020 Wealthy discredit election process

 

Nov 21 2020 Trump’s Plans for a Coup: criminal

 

Nov 21 2020: Trump plan: US Marshals seize voting machines

 

Jan 6 2021 Direct assault failed: guns & bombs ready

 

Trump engaged in a "criminal conspiracy" to stop Biden

 

I don’t f—ing care that they have weapons

 

Trump was “detached from reality”

 

Trump used mafia-style intimidation on the defenseless

 

Trump still terrorizing election woman

 

Parscale: “a sitting president asking for civil war.”

 

Trump: “Just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me” 

 

GOP fascism: “RINO hunt armed; no bagging limitJ6 comm threat

 

January 6, 2021A date which will live in infamy

 

Trump’s Supremes END personal rights & state laws except for weapons WMDs

 

Fascism: GOP to stop women leaving state for abortion

 

It’s not a court. It’s a junta: Two Americas

 

Trump: President Biden is 'enemy of the state'

 

Christian Nationalist Party (CNP) replaces GOP

 

Nov 8 2022 Trump’s “national revolution” failed

 

Nov 15 2022 Trump announces for 2024 to avoid lawsuits

 

Dec 3 2022 Trump: cancel Constitution rules so ‘I win

 

Mar 11 2023 Pence straddles his place in history

 

Mar 31 2023 Trump indicted misusing election money

 

Apr 7 2023 One GOP guy decided which drugs we all can use

 

Apr 9 Illustrated Anne Frank book removed by Florida school

 

 

Jan 2025 Dictator pardons himself: his Supremes agree

 

 

How Govt wastes our money:

Will GOP fix SS benefits: Facts About the Social Security Trustees Report

 

Trump judge destroys choice of all Americans for medication abortions to ban sex

Drug industry CEOs spent millions to get judge who now ends their system of FDA OKs

One GOP judge will erode doctors’ ability to provide lifesaving care to all Americans

 

 

We waste $ billions on intelligence: they can’t even keep our secrets: National Guard

Greene defends Jack Teixeira, suspect in documents leak, victim of "the Biden regime

 

Rich taking water for pools robs 80 metropolitan cities around the world of fair share

Why we have inflation: sneakers sell for a record $2.2 million—cheap money, tax tricks

We bailed out rich poorly run banks $22 B: local banks don’t want to pay for speculators

 

Who leaked top secret documents? Not Trump even though Putin can give him asylum!

GOP to make Trump ‘above the law’ legally: Congress has gone mad if Dems allow it.

 

Shane Lamond, 22-year vet of D.C. police informs to Proud Boys terrorists

 

 

SCAMS/SPINS:

Assisted-living homes are rejecting Medicaid and evicting WI seniors

KY GOP must accept Black representatives elected by their voters: dictatorship fails

 

Banks Are Closing Customer Accounts, With Little or No Explanation

Abbott Recall FreeStyle Libre: glucose monitoring system posing a fire hazard

Illustrated Anne Frank book removed by Florida high school

 

Clarence: The sorry part: he doesn’t see optics: conflict of interest when hang with rich

 

Trump never stop running even if convicted: fundraising too good to stop: needs attention

Trump delays rape trial even though victim waited 23 years for April 25, 2023 start

 

Christopher Burns caught stole $10 million from clients: promised safe high yield returns

Managers OH firm caught stealing $72 million: 200 clients failed see brokercheck.org/

 

Are Nursing Homes Paid Enough? Facts to consider: $12,623 month in MA shared room

 

Hackers can take control of your car – How to protect yourself

Blackmail? Tesla employees access our private photos/videos taken from car cameras

 

SIG Sauer P320 pistols can shoot without pulling trigger: 80 injured so far

AR-15: killing co workers made easy: 13 victims have no chance to pull gun

After every American community has mass murder, will GOP ban war machine guns?

 

Supremes’ new standard: if no proof new gun law linked to 1791/1868 then new law fails test 

 

Army Allows Soldiers with Violent Crimes to Leave the Military Rather Than Face Trial

Christian nation?: Gun deaths among America's kids rose 50% in the past two years

GOP ready to invade Mexico: kill drug cartels, immigrants: new hate provoked

TX to send vigilantes to border to keep immigrants out:

 

Fun with AI: when GOP wakes up, this is what we will see!

File return even if don’t need to: FREE money from All your tax credits

 

Jobs

Worker shortage closes ports

Fed jobs pay very well with benefits: https://www.usajobs.gov/

Teacher shortage: retirement, burnout, low pay, ideological intimidation

 

Linkin shows firms desperate for retirees: “You appeared in 28 searches this week”: usually 4

 

 

 

Who owns your account now?

Long-term care: 4.4 million have some form of long-term care paid for by Medicaid

Before waste $300: filing taxes on your own not as hard as thought: tips reduce stress

Best Stick Shift Cars: More fun than SUV: Subaru, Honda, Mustang,

 

Book flight directly: best fares shown on price comparison sites.

Ban on incandescent light bulbs: Aug 1, 2023

FedNow: Fed’s real-time payments service launches in July for secure transfers

 

1st class stamps up July 9: will sales slump at 0.66?

18 Things to Buy Now Before Prices Rise

 

 

Owe tax? Reduce what you owe by contribution to deductible IRA by 4/18.

Where are you? average-credit-card-debt-by-age-federal-reserve/

 

Don’t settle:  3,527 candidates took the CFP Certification Exam, only 65% passed.

Best & Worst Firms for Self-Directed Investors: J.D. Power, 2023

 

 

 

Miracles:

Half Ukraine's pre-war population driven from their homes: we need workers

More extremes: world’s ocean surface temperature hits record high

Leader board in the old days: Mayan 800AD

 

EPA pushes electrics faster adoption despite $40K low prices: but its minerals in China

July 17: IRS says $1.5 billion in refunds unclaimed: people haven’t filed for 2019

A tiny implant has cured mice of breast cancer in just two weeks: millions could survive

 

Bending light from extreme gravity reveals largest black hole so far

CA seeing a spectacular superbloom after months of heavy rainfall

Fort Lauderdale isn’t for partying any more: unless you like scuba

 

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Our Universe is Mind-Blowing

Light is both a particle and a wave depending on how we look at the light.

I don’t think that there is any such thing as a position or a velocity of a particle.

Everything (galaxies to stones) in universe made of subatomic energy ‘vibrations’

A subatomic ‘particle’ is the smallest possible vibration (quantum) of a quantum field.

 

Mass–energy equivalence: E=mc^2.  At the smallest level; Everything is moving

Energy into matter: scientists converted light energy directly into matter in one step

Physics Nobel Prize: “entanglement” 2 particles share info instantly at a distance

“It may be that gravity and quantum mechanics are exactly the same thing,” Leonard Susskind

Gravity might induce the collapse of quantum vibrations into 1 quantum state—our world

Bending light from extreme gravity reveals largest black hole so far

 

There is no TIME at this level because of force fields come and go in all directions. 

Universe expanding: events may not come together like they did before: created our time.

Inside protons, neutrons, it is the fields of the virtual particles that creates its mass.

Gold made from neutron stars: collisions produce more neutrons:79 protons,118 neutrons

The proton is so complicated science still finds new energy entities/forces every year.

 

“Empty space is a boiling, bubbling brew of virtual particles that pop in and out of existence in a time scale so short that you can’t even measure them.” Space expanding.

The electricity we use comes from the field around the wire not from electron itself.

Scientists build 'baby' wormhole as sci-fi moves closer to fact: inside quantum computer

starts-with-a-bang/universe-expansion-not-accelerating/

 

 

 

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We can apply for Medicare online: https://blog.ssa.gov/apply-for-medicare-online

We can apply for Social Security online: https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/

We can apply for health care online: https://www.healthcare.gov/

 

IAN

973.746.2014

http://www.theinsidersguides.com/

Alerts available at http://dankeppel.blogspot.com/

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