Friday, May 17, 2019

Need a graduation gift?


Need a graduation gift?
The greatest gift you can give is financial knowledge. No matter how much your young graduate makes, it is up to YOU to show them the Buffett investment strategy. Make sure they can make and manage money. At my first job, I had no clue which investment to use for my 401k contributions and company match. The HR person told me to put it into the 'safe' stable value fund. That was the worst choice at my age I learned later when I got my securities’ licenses. If I had followed their advice I would have ended up with about $150,000 instead of a Wealth Reserve of $877,233 about 33 years later.

The BIG Con: Earn up to 7% with NO MARKET RISK
Looking for the Highest Guaranteed Return?
This is the current misleading ad from an annuity marketing firm. The insurer is not mentioned—for good reason. The best REAL rate is 4.3% but you must keep your money locked up for 10 years or pay the surrender charge. See the disclaimers: * Effective yield displayed. First year rate is higher than subsequent years.** Rate may be lower in certain states. Only a gimmick or trick from a carrier could show a pretend rate of 7%. But this is the only way salespeople can get your attention. Unbiased information is not easily available because most annuity contracts are complicated. 7% may be the ‘potential’ return for a SINGLE period like monthly indexed annuities. However you need to be an actuary to figure out how the terms of the contract will produce your real return. When I was in the business, we only cared about the commission to us and how brokers/advisors could push the sale to clients. None of us understood the actual calculations. But people will buy anything when the alternative is a 3% CD and a volatile market.

Liberty Mutual claims it customizes Mr Landry’s special needs coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQnbL_5ZgbY
Every insurer claims “you only pay for what you need” and then they go on to include in their ‘standard policy’ a bundle that includes life, disability, accidental death, funeral, extraordinary medical, income loss, medical payments coverage, and medical insurance. But most people already pay for these coverages. Your premium is not usually itemized so you don’t see they add charges for towing and rental car loan and insurance as well as accident forgiveness, waiver of depreciation, full replacement if totaled, uninsured /underinsured motorist coverage, family protection coverage, mechanical breakdown coverage, gap insurance, ‘stacking’ and many other things. For instance, if you are insuring an older car you may not need comprehensive coverage. You also may NOT be told about all of your insurer’s discounts or their complaint history. Remember, the commissions and profits are determined by the premium you will be paying for the next 20-30 years. Every insurance company can ‘customize’ your coverage to pay less if you know their discounts and your ‘needs.’ Cancel double coverage you don’t need.

Bull market took 10 years to recover but what could you do about 2007-8?
Jeff Sommer writer of ‘Strategies’ in the Times, noted that it took a rise of 100% after a 50% decline and so we should learn that “avoiding big losses was probably more important than reaping big market gains.” YES, but how Mr Sommer? He didn’t tell readers in Nov 2007 that the market would drop and so get out. No one did. Sommer advises us to look at longer periods to understand what the stock market can do for our expectations. We don’t have to use the ‘artificial’ calendar cut offs to gauge performance. I don’t think any of us or our advisors can predict the future so I refer him to the graphic by Richard Bernstein or the chart by DALBAR showing that our best deal is a low-cost index tracking the S&P 500. Yes there are ups and downs but I will take 10.98% a year since 1976. No other asset can claim that record: Govt bond 7% since 1980; Corporate bonds 8% since 1973; Commercial real estate 10.23% since 1996; Gold 5.5% since 1993; Commodities 4.2% since 1993. Owning the 500 Index is what Warren Buffett advises.

Is this socialism?
Trump is giving $15 billions MORE to farm corporations so they make their profit goals.
Farm subsidies go to 5 crops mostly. Large agribusiness corporations not family farmers capture most of the $ billions. It is the marginal family farm that will be hurt by Trump’s tariff war with China. His GOP friends in Congress benefit directly from this type of socialism. There are no tariff offsets for small businesses like your local bike shop. Another type is giving profiteers federal land so they can ‘steal’ our oil/gas. We earn much less in royalties than the private landowner.
Another type of socialism is the Export-Import Bank where our largest corporations receive taxpayer-backed cheap loans they don’t need to make more for shareholders. 
Another type of socialism is the price fixing that Congress allows to go on in the drug industry. We allow the drug companies to collude to raise prices on even the generic drug business the government established in 1984. Most new drugs are actually created by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). U.S.-based foundations have increased their investments in discovery and development for new drugs specific to their diseases of interest. After we pay for the research, the drug companies pay for testing and distribution (nightly TV advertising too). The government gives companies the legal right to make $ billions on each drug. After 20 years the drugs are supposed to be supplied by the generic industry at lower cost. This isn’t what happens. Congress allows Pharma to manipulate the process. Studies looking at cancer treatments have shown no correlation between the price of cancer drugs and the benefits they provide. We pay more for drugs—even 8,281% more for generics—than the rest of the world. Our government won’t bargain with Pharma on price so they are free to gouge us. I pay $15 for one Januvia pill here and $4 in Canada. Which should we pay?

Do you see a pattern investment strategy here?
This is the new Callan Periodic Table: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Classic-Periodic-Table-2019.pdf. I hope you can see a pattern but I sure can’t. If you knew what was on top in 2019, you could put all your chips there. But most of us don’t know. Others guess. Others read lines and charts and say they know. But they are paid to say they know. And even the most successful investors don’t know. So what can we do? Warren Buffett and John Bogle say, don’t try to find the needle, buy the haystack. But it can’t be that simple since a whole industry is devoted to finding that next big thing. And some of us pay them to do it even when they fail.

How do you judge your broker/advisor?
Are they providing the best advice possible or just OK? How do you know? How do you measure your success? Which benchmark do they use to show you how well they are doing? You know they must be paid but how are you paying them? Like every vendor you hire, you don’t want to get cheated. Unfortunately, only now is the industry starting to identify the bad brokers/advisors that move from firm to firm. John Bogle, founder, Vanguard has created low-cost investing so that we don’t need to give up 63% of our total possible accumulations because we pay too much. The actual returns of managed equity accounts have been tracked over time. DALBAR’s annual study shows we average investors earn only 3.79% on their money compared with the 11% from an index. You can end up with $854,000 or $220,000 for retirement. This is why the industry has changed. People need to hire a financial specialist like they hire a lawyer NOT like a cable firm’s monthly retainer. When we have a problem and need advice, we get it in a couple of meetings. Most of us do not need to pay 1-2% of our portfolio every quarter so that our advisor can tell us how we are doing. We can see it ourselves in our statements and strategies. Learn how to judge. Pay less; earn more: 1% or 0.04%?


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Make America, “The Don”, Great Again
Truth isn’t truth, his lawyer says

Two Americas: A Banana Republic? Do we really want an infant king? Daddy Putin!

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How Govt wastes our money: Congress spends $1.3 Trillion we don’t have! 
Rubio enlightens Trump on China trade: CEOs make deals not Trump: Follow the $s.

Senator tells witness to violate the law: GOP backs Mob Boss to defy Congress.
Broker regulators just now propose warning investors about bad brokers & firms???
Trump use war to win 2020 election? GOP leaders never heard of Iran & war ships.


SCAMS/SPINS:
Trump tells Boeing just to rename the 737 Max: “consumers have very short memory”!

Trump goes on attack (best defense is offense) against law enforcement: FBI, CIA, Spys
Trump cutting Pell Grants for college education: sending money to the moon.


Melting global ice pack allows more trade opportunities for Trump’s Mob, he says.
Coal industry changing our species and habitats forever thanks to Trump’s Mob

Boeing ignored pilot warning about 737: killed 189 and then 157 and claims safe


Debt collectors want no restriction on calls/week or emails/texts intimidation. Trumpism.
TurboTax, Block, others in IRS FreeFileAlliance hid the free option so we pay more.

Child abuse inside Scouts sends BSA into bankruptcy? 5,000 perversion files ignored?

The Mob Boss can never go to jail: Trump has Kava as Supreme so no contempt.
‘No man is above the law’ … well up till now. Dictators nullify courts first, then votes.

Jobs:
Insider attacks were responsible for most healthcare data breaches: Dr have BIG loans.

Boarding homes for singles are back: Earn helping others in need!
23 apply for President: too many so Trump wins again?

Who owns your account now?
Why we return so many electronics: can’t get started to use: no user help, etc.
WA first state give residents public option health care plan but run by insurers: 1st in US

United Capital Financial Partners to Goldman Sachs Group


Miracle:
AL has turned back time to 1960s when no abortions even if raped by a relative. Move.

IAN
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Montclair, NJ   07042
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